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Fishbreath Picks: AAF Week 7

Week 6 results

Memphis lost by 13 at Salt Lake, whereas I picked them +8.5.

Arizona beat Orlando, and I had Arizona +9.

San Antonio beat Atlanta 37-6; they were 1.5-point underdogs.

Birmingham beat San Diego 32-29; they were 6-point underdogs.

3-1 puts me two picks above .500, at 11-9. For double the fun, all of my picks were underdogs.

Week 7 picks

Orlando at Atlanta (Orlando -8.5)

I didn’t even have to get to the line to pick Orlando in this one.

Salt Lake at San Antonio (San Antonio -5.5)

Salt Lake remains better than their 2-4 record indicates, but San Antonio is playing at home and has been on a tear lately. I’ll go with them.

San Diego at Arizona (San Diego +3.5)

If you go back and look at my picks, I’m pretty sure I come across as a huge San Diego homer, despite having never even visited. Arizona is a very streaky team, and despite San Diego’s troubles on the road, I think they can keep it close.

Birmingham at Memphis (Birmingham -3)

Memphis is down there with Atlanta in the league’s garbage tier, and they lost a quarterback in Zach Mettenberger whose play was a bright spot on an otherwise dim-looking record.

Fishbreath Picks: AAF Week 6

Week 5 results

Orlando beat Birmingham 31-14. I picked Orlando -3.5.

San Diego beat Salt Lake 27-25. I picked Salt Lake +6.

Atlanta beat Memphis 23-30. I picked Atlanta -1.5.

San Antonio beat Arizona 29-25. I picked San Antonio +2.5.

My first perfect week erases my deficit and brings me back to .500: 8-8.

Week 6 picks

Memphis at Salt Lake (Memphis +8.5)

Salt Lake and Memphis are both bad teams. I don’t see either one winning by more than a touchdown.

Arizona at Orlando (Arizona +9)

Orlando may be the team to beat, but I think 9 points is too big a spread. Arizona hasn’t been winning games lately, but they’ve been scoring points.

San Antonio at Atlanta (San Antonio +1.5)

Atlanta’s on a roll, but I don’t believe they’re the real deal yet.

Birmingham at San Diego (Birmingham +6)

Nothing I’ve seen in the past few weeks of Birmingham and San Diego football suggests that San Diego ought to be a six-point favorite over Birmingham. In this battle of my rooting interests, I will take Birmingham.

Fishbreath Picks: AAF Week 5

Week 4 results

Memphis beat San Diego, and my pick was Memphis+6.

Orlando beat Salt Lake 20-11; my pick was Salt Lake+4.

San Antonio beat Birmingham 12-11; my pick was Birmingham-7. That makes Orlando the last undefeated team.

In perhaps the most surprising result of the week, and the one that makes me look the worst, Atlanta beat Arizona 14-11. (Remember that I switched my pick to Arizona-13.5.)

Another 1-3 week puts me at .333: 4-8.

Week 5 picks

Orlando at Birmingham (Orlando -3.5)

The Apollos are still the best in the league, and Birmingham has been struggling with quarterback play lately. Weather in Birmingham is expected to be bad on Saturday, which will likely dampen the Apollos’ offensive firepower, but I still think they’ll be able to carry it by more than 3.5.

Salt Lake at San Diego (Salt Lake +6)

Quarterbacks are even harder to come by in this league than in the NFL, and San Diego lost their starter last week.

Memphis at Atlanta (Atlanta -1.5)

I’m happy with Atlanta-1.5 in this one—Memphis got their win last week because San Diego’s starting QB went out.

San Antonio at Arizona (San Antonio +2.5)

Riding high, San Antonio seems well positioned to beat a recently-struggling Arizona.

Fishbreath Picks: AAF Week 4

Week 3 results

Well, not covering myself in glory.

Arizona lost 23-15, so my Arizona-4 pick was no good. I was right on some of the commentary (Salt Lake is better than their record indicates), but wrong on the particulars. Importantly, Arizona lost their starting QB to injury.

Orlando-14.5 beat Memphis 21-17. 4 is notably less than 14.5, but how was I to know that Memphis would finally bench Hackenberg?

Birmingham-6 won over Atlanta 28-12, my only correct pick of the week.

San Diego beat San Antonio+2 by 20. My rooting interests did well for themselves, but alas, I did not trust to homerism enough when making my picks.

Going 1-3 this week puts my overall record at a not-great 3-5.

Week 4 picks

San Diego at Memphis (Memphis+6)

I’ve been burned by picking favorites so far, and Memphis in particular is no longer the Christian Hackenberg show, so I think they’ll keep it close.

Orlando at Salt Lake (Salt Lake+4)

Picking against the Stallions also burned me, so I’ll give them the chance to un-burn me or to finish the job. Their starting quarterback is healthy again, which gives them a good shot at keeping it close with the class-of-the-league Apollos.

San Antonio at Birmingham (Birmingham-7)

Birmingham’s defense is proving to be the AAF’s best, and San Antonio had a rough week last week. At home, I expect another Iron Curtain shutdown. (Clearly, they picked the name Iron for just that joke.)

Atlanta at Arizona (Arizona-13.5)

Picking Atlanta, even spotting them 13.5 points, is bold, but given that Arizona is starting a backup quarterback, I think it’s maybe possible that Atlanta covers. … and, shortly after I completed the draft of this post yesterday, Mr. Wolford put in an appearance at Wednesday practice, so I’m going to take that excuse to switch my pick.

Fishbreath Picks: AAF Week 3

My picks in parentheses. NoExtraPoints is now my go-to source for box scores.

Arizona at Salt Lake (Arizona-4)

Salt Lake is better than their record indicates, I suspect, but they fell 38-22 to Arizona in week 1. Team quality in the AAF has so far been more important than home-away as far as picks go, and Arizona is currently the AAF’s best passing team.

Memphis at Orlando (Orlando-14.5)

Memphis has played execrable football so far this year, as Christian Hackenberg reminds us that not every NFL washout is a diamond in the rough who just needs a bit more development. Taking a 14.5-point favorite in a league where teams rarely score more than 25 points is maybe a bit risky, but Orlando’s averaging almost 40 points per game and Memphis is averaging 9.

Birmingham at Atlanta (Birmingham-6)

Atlanta has an accurate quarterback but a bad offensive line, and Birmingham has been good at pressuring quarterbacks. We know from Week 1 that the Iron can move the ball and score on bad teams, so I’m going with them here.

San Antonio at San Diego (San Antonio+2)

San Antonio won the week 1 meeting by 9 points, prompting a mid-game QB switch. Philip Nelson, who took the helm for the Fleet (see what I did there?), is not a dramatic improvement over whoever they had in week 1, and I expect San Antonio to, at the least, keep it close.