AlphaGo Defeats Lee Sedol

In what even I, who predicted an AlphaGo series win, regard as a bit of a surprise, AlphaGo defeated Lee Sedol in the first game of the five-game match. AlphaGo won by Lee’s resignation, which came 186 moves into the game, up by (the consensus seems to be) between three and seven points at the time.

Our liveblog has our detailed commentary from the first 120 or 130 moves of the game, after which I went to bed. Here, though, are some highlights and post-game thoughts.

  • AlphaGo is much stronger now than it was before. Michael Redmond, a 9-dan pro who was engaged to commentate, remarked as much: AlphaGo didn’t make any serious mistakes.
  • One of AlphaGo’s suspected weaknesses before the game was coming out ahead after complicated fights; we thought this because it avoided getting involved in very many serious fights against Fan Hui. It turns out that AlphaGo can indeed fight, and fight well, as we saw with the fight at the top center of the board that developed early on in the running. AlphaGo came out ahead there, or at the very least, ended up with a strong enough position that she1 could hold it and use it as a base to fight over the center of the board, while strengthening her position in the top left.
  • Lee Sedol seemed a little flustered by the level of AlphaGo’s play. He, like a lot of go experts, seemed to make the twin assumptions that: 1) AlphaGo would not improve dramatically between October and today, and 2) AlphaGo was not vastly stronger than Fan Hui in October. AI experts suspected that the first item was false, and they turned out to be correct. That said, it’s hard to fault go experts for lacking experience with AI systems, and not realizing that six months is an eternity for a learning system to improve. It is much easier to fault go experts for the second point, which is one of simple math. A 9-dan pro should beat a 2-dan pro (like Fan Hui) 95%-99% of the time. Although the known AlphaGo-Fan Hui games are too small a sample to draw firm conclusions from, it is telling that AlphaGo defeated Fan Hui by large margins or resignation in all of the long-time games, losing only during quick play; either way, its record suggests that AlphaGo is properly probably at least 5-dan, and may be up at the 9-dan level.
  • It’s possible that a lot of AlphaGo’s added strength came from the extra time to think, but it’s difficult to do much more than speculate on that front. Suffice it to say that this could be a contributing factor.
  • One thing we haven’t seen very much of is AlphaGo’s ability in close endgames. Given that endgames are basically tests of reading, and AlphaGo has proven to be superb at that so far, I wouldn’t expect its endgames to be any worse than its middle games, but Lee Sedol may nevertheless aim to explore AlphaGo’s endgame capabilities with a more relaxed early game, next time out.
  • One of my prematch predictions seems to have turned out true: computers play differently than do humans, and it may be that humans play more optimally than humans. In the late midgame, around move 120 to 150, in the bottom right and center right of the board, AlphaGo played very cautiously, keeping stones alive (particularly in the bottom right) and denying Lee Sedol territory, without aiming to decisively win the corner itself. Go experts would denounce this sort of play as ‘slow’, given that it seems to yield tempo, but if AlphaGo is confident that she’s already ahead, she need not play to do any more than deny Lee the win.

That’s all for now. We’ll be back with more at the end of the weekend, or after any particularly interesting games, and we might liveblog the final game in the series on Monday night. If so, you’ll hear about it here.

AlphaGo vs. Lee Sedol Game 1 Liveblog

Parvusimperator Reviews the HK VP9

Last week, I hit the range in a black mood. And I hit it not with one of my usual Glocks, but with a range rental. See, I was thinking of you, dear reader, and I picked something I thought I was sure to hate: the HK VP9.

HK tends to be like Apple, they’ve got a bunch of obnoxious fanboys that everyone else wants to beat with a tire iron. And their USPs have all the ergonomics of a 2×4, and their double action triggers suck ass. Oh, and between American import laws, German export laws, and management that historically hasn’t given two shits about the civilian market, you can’t get a lot of the cool toys that you see on the cover of a Clancy novel. Ugh.

On the other hand, Jack Bauer carried a USP Compact for most of 24, and he’s pretty badass. On a more serious level, a bunch of my internet friends have spoken very highly of the VP9, and they as a group have a lot more trigger time than me. But maybe they’re fanboys. Maybe it’s a bunch of blather about “Teutonic Precision” or somesuch. No problem. I’d drop a Jackson on a rental, and then I’d get to tell them off and get an awesome hate-fueled tirade for you lot out of it.

Things didn’t work out that way.

First thing I noticed with the VP9 was the grip. This was not a USP grip. This was not a Glock grip. No, it wasn’t even an M&P grip. It was better than all of the above. It’s really, really comfortable. Like that wonderfully contoured PPQ grip. But where the PPQ has the interchangeable backstraps, like the Glock and the M&P, the VP9 also has interchangeable side panels, so you can control thickness independently of length. For my first outing, I left everything at medium, which seemed to fit my hand ok. I’d have to spend some time with a target to see which is best. Also, the texture is nicely grippy, which I like. But it’s not super grippy, so you might also like it if you’re not a fan of 20 LPI checkering, say. Even without messing with the panels, it fit my hand well and allowed a nice, high grip.

Sizewize, the VP9 is a bit bigger than a Glock 19, but not by much. Slide is roughly the same size, but the frame is taller. It’s like someone put a Glock 19 slide on a Glock 17 frame. I know no one who has done this, but there you have it. If you’re looking to conceal the VP9, you should be aware of this. My EDC is a Glock 17 with RMR though, so I think it’s fine. The magazines only hold 15 rounds of 9mm though, which is odd. Looking at the size, I think they should be able to get more in there, but I’m no engineer. Maybe there’s a reliability question I don’t know about coming into play here. Some guys with a lot of hours on Glocks suggest downloading those magazines by a round or two in crappy environments, so maybe that’s it. Then again, some other guys with a lot of hours on Glocks have no such complaints. Such are the hazards of appeals to authority. I don’t have gajillions of rounds through Glocks, and I’ve never had any problems. Take that as you will.

Moving on, we come to the trigger. And unlike seemingly every other HK pistol on the planet, it seems like they had shooters in mind when they designed this one, because it’s great. Light, crisp, super consistent, and with a great reset. Let’s make some comparisons.

Is it better than an M&P trigger? Don’t make me laugh. The M&P trigger is made of mashed potatoes and grit. It’s godawful. Next.

Is it better than a Glock trigger? Yes. At least, the stock trigger. The stock Glock trigger is heavier and rougher than that of the VP9. Both will smooth out with age. You can make the Glock trigger into almost anything you want with aftermarket parts. The VP9 reset is every bit as solid as that of the Glock, which is high praise. Riding the reset on a striker-fired automatic is a great way to get shorter split times.

Is it better than a PPQ trigger? No. Well, not for shooting. The VP9 trigger is heavier, and has a perceptible “wall” before the break. The PPQ is basically a light rolling break all the way through. The PPQ is easier to shoot better, but I’d probably feel more comfortable with a VP9 for carry, or certainly for duty use. The VP9 also seems to have less travel overall, and I might actually like that part better, even with a little more weight.

How does the VP9 shoot? Great. So very great. Consistent trigger, a grip that works with you, and generally mild recoil characteristics make this pistol very accurate. Maybe this was that Teutonic Build Quality everyone’s always on about. I pushed the target back, and back, and back from my initial start at the usual seven yards and had a really great night, even with the target way out at the stops at 50 feet. This gun is really easy to shoot well and really easy to like. I’ll be damned if it wasn’t growing on me.

Okay, so what about the mag changes? If you don’t know, since the USP series, HK has been using little paddles on either side of the back of the trigger guard to drop the mag, rather than the usual John Moses Browning endorsed button on the side of the grip. On the one hand, it’s fighting years of muscle memory. On the other, it’s totally ambidextrous, and I’ll be damned if it isn’t faster. I also like that the VP9 really ejects magazines with authority, unlike my Glocks.

Let’s talk some of the other design features of the VP9. It has forward cocking serrations, which let you do press checks like a cool guy. It has a loaded chamber indicator, which is an extra function of the extractor, just in case you’re too much of a pussy to do press checks. There’s a bit at the back to tell you whether or not the striker is cocked. I’m not sure of the utility of this, but it’s nice in dry fire.

There are also the little “wings” on the side of the slide to assist in cocking. I kinda like those for reasons that I’m not really clear on. They do make it easier to get a good grip on the slide and rack it. Probably very helpful if you are smaller in size. Or if you had some kind of weird malfunction. I didn’t experience any, but if I had one, I’ll take any bit of extra mechanical advantage I can get on a jammed up gun.

Now, the sights. Due to some German export nonsense, the VP9 ships with sights that have that day-glo shit on them. They’ll glow in the dark, if they were charged up beforehand. Which is pretty useless if you were gonna carry it concealed and then need it at night. On the other hand, they’re infinitely better than the stock Glock vestigial sight-like-objects, and better still than the traditional white three dot sights that come stock on other things, since the HK ones might glow in the dark maybe sometimes. They were perfectly serviceable on the rental at the range, but really should be swapped out for something more to your liking. If you’re not sure what to get, there’s a VP9 LE model, which gets proper tritium night sights put on by HK USA in Georgia and also comes with an extra mag. The markup on the LE version is reasonable for what you get, if you like those sights.

So where do we stand? The VP9 is probably the most complete polymer framed handgun out of the box, which I think is exactly the goal HK was going for. All it needs are sights. Even though it’s more expensive than the competition, I’d wholeheartedly recommend it. It’s an easy gun to like. If you like striker fired pistols, this is probably best of breed out of the box. Just be aware that you don’t quite have the accessories of something like Glock or M&P. On the other hand HK will at least take care of you; they have a history of making guns for some really small markets.

A VP9 LE even followed me home.

OpenTafl v0.1.9b: the end of the line for 0.1.x

OpenTafl v0.1.9b has been released! This release adds support for a game clock. The AI is able to plan its time usage in accordance with the amount of time it has left. Additionally, settings are now saved from run to run.

This marks the last major release in the OpenTafl v0.1 series. The next major release will be 0.2.0b, including engine mode and related features, work on which will start at the end of March or the beginning of April. Looking ahead to the tournament, I may switch around the tasks in v0.3 and v0.4 from the roadmap I put up a few posts ago—network play lets me set up each AI in its own Amazon EC2 instance and have them play that way, which simplifies the rules by letting AIs think on their opponent’s turn, and removes the need for me to figure out how to limit an arbitrary process’s resource use (although it does add some complexity in building a tournament framework).

Now that it’s feature-complete, v0.1.9b will remain the stable version until v0.2.x is ready to go. What this means for repository structure is that I’ll create a new v0.2.x branch, and that’ll be the head of the tree for dev purposes. Any bugs discovered in v0.1.9b will get patched on master and pushed into 0.2.x, if it makes sense to do so. When 0.2.x is done, it’ll get merged into master, and I’ll start a new 0.3.x branch, and so on until perhaps, someday, a 1.0.

Rebranding: the Soapbox

Parvusimperator and I already call this place the Soapbox more than the Fish Bowl in internal correspondence, and given that he’s the main content creator here nowadays, a Fishbreath-centric name ceased to be appropriate some time ago.

Welcome, then, to the newly-rechristened-but-you-already-called-it-that-anyway Soapbox.

Resurrected Weapons: GPU-5/A Gunpod and the GAU-13/A

The US Air Force has hated the A-10 with a burning fiery passion, and has been doing their best to kill it since they got it. I guess they think of it like that ugly sweater you get at Christmas from your crazy relative that your parents make you not throw in the trash. This is because it takes pilots and money away from glorious aerial combat and nuclear weapons delivery and puts them to work moving mud for the ground pounders. One of their schemes from the late 80s to oust the Warthog centered around making an F-16 variant that could handle hardcore ground attack actions.

On paper, this seems easy. The F-16 can carry anything the Warthog can. The F-16 can sling Mavericks just as well as the A-10 can. And it would get precision guided bomb integration first. And it can carry regular iron bombs too. Perfect, right? Well, not quite. The A-10 has a massive gun, the aptly named GAU-8/A Avenger. This beast of a gatling gun is chambered for the 30x173mm round, and is absolutely massive. The A-10 was built around this beast, and it’s an accurate, powerful tank killer. It also has a terrifying buzz saw sound. This gun is sweet.

So, the USAF decided to try to put that gun on the F-16, since the F-16 had only a regular 20mm Vulcan cannon. The answer was the GPU-5/A gunpod. To work in a pod, they decided to scale back the Avenger a bit into the GAU-13/A. The GAU-13/A has four barrels instead of seven on the Avenger, and has the rate of fire reduced to about half that of the Avenger (2,400 rounds per minute instead of 4,200 rounds per minute). From a technical standpoint, the GAU-13/A is driven pneumatically using bleed air, instead of being driven by the A-10’s hydraulic system.

The pod held 353 rounds of ammunition, which isn’t a lot at 2,400 rounds per minute. But fully loaded it only weighs 862 kg, and it can be mounted on any NATO-standard large bomb rack. It was tested on the F-16, F-15, F-4, A-7, and even the small F-5.

What could be better? Well, they got tested during the first Gulf War, and all the illusions were shattered. The GPU-5/A pods were mounted on F-16s, but the accuracy was appalling. While a bomb mount can easily handle the weight, it was never designed to deal with the stresses of firing a massive gun like the GAU-13/A. Additionally, the integration with the F-16’s targeting systems was poor. It was used for all of a day and then removed and replaced with more effective stores. The A-10 can deliver accurate bursts from the Avenger; the F-16 just wasn’t able to match it. You’d need specialized pylons at least, which takes away some of the attraction of the GPU-5/A pod.

This is to be expected. These days, we’ve grown accustomed to multirole types and forgotten some things about dedicated designs. The F-16 was never designed to be a CAS plane, and it has a bunch of issues that are way more important than whether or not it carries a giant gun. The F-16 is fast, and burns fuel quickly. It can’t hang around low and slow for hours like the A-10 can. Slow is good for the A-10 because it helps the pilot spot targets visually. Fast is good for the F-16 because it needs to be able to catch MiGs. The F-16 can be tasked with short order CAS missions, but it can’t hang around without refueling. And that’s ok, it’s just silly to try to make it do something that it can’t. The Air Force scrapped the project shortly afterward.

For once I agree with them. Interestingly, if the US Air Force wanted to be rid of the A-10, they should just let the US Army operate fixed wing aircraft. Or even make a specific exemption for the A-10; the Army would love them. Were A-10s available in the procurement games, we would be all over them. As things are, we’ll make do with attack helicopters, like the US Army.

Verdict: Funding Request Denied by the Borgundy Air Ordnance Procurement Board

Armata Response 1: Myrmidon MBT

Usually, the Russians tend to make things that are rugged, ugly, and simple. See, the AK-47, the Mosin-Nagant, and the T-34. They work. But they are hardly innovative. Every so often though, they surprise everyone and come up with something new. In the 60s, it was the T-64, which introduced a production tank with composite armor and an autoloader. Last year, they did it again with the T-14 Armata, the first production1 tank where the crew are all in the hull and the turret is unmanned.

Why would they do this? Well, we’ve got some fancy electrics now, and if we physically isolate the crew from the ammo, then we maximize safety and survivability in the event of a catastrophic penetration of the ammo compartment. It also means that we can minimize the protected volume for the turret, so we can reduce overall tank weight. Much as I hate to admit it, tank experts in West Germany, the United States, and the Soviet Union all agreed that this was the way forward, even if it meant sacrificing visibility from the top of the turret with the Mark I Eyeball. Guess it’s time to suck it up and embrace the future.

So, the Russians have unveiled their fancy new Armata armored vehicle family, and it seems to be a pretty good one. We could upgrade existing hardware to match, or discuss the use of attack helicopters as tank destroyers. But the Tank Destroyer Doctine was a failure in World War II, and Fishbreath would never let me hear the end of writing up attack helicopters so darn much. Plus, it’s much more fun to write up a symmetrical counter, a new MBT of our own: the Myrmidon.

The Russians are trying to make the Armata a family of heavy combat vehicles. However, I don’t think this is a good idea. While commonality of spares is great, commonality of chassis is irrelevant and useless from a maintenance cost perspective (which is by far the bigger cost over the lifetime). Plus, it’s a false economy, since the HIFV and probably the SPH will be front-engined, but the T-14 MBT is rear engined, so that’s going to drive up design costs and force compromises. And Heavy IFVs are expensive–too expensive to buy in the desired quantity. The GCV was cancelled for cost reasons. The US Army also looked into the heavy IFV/heavy APC concept when they were designing the Bradley, but felt it was too costly. And the basically-unarmed Namer is almost as expensive as the Merkava IV. Further, giant vehicle families encourage gold plating, which leads to cost overruns, which leads to a budget kill of the project. So we’re just going to make a new tank. We’ll have other designs for IFVs and SPHs and the like forthcoming as separate designs.

In terms of engine, we’re going to put it at the back like normal people, but otherwise we’re going to be a little different. This is a bit of a throwback in that we’re going to build the ultimate combat tank, not some excessively tall MRAP thing for COIN. Which means we need the best possible engine performance. We oughtn’t neglect the mobility part of the firepower/protection/mobility triad. So we’re going to take a gas turbine engine design, because nothing beats the acceleration of a turbine. Nothing. Specifically, we’re going with the Honeywell LV100-5, originally intended for the cancelled XM2001 Crusader program, and an M1 Abrams re-engine project. This little engine weighs just 1,043 kg, develops 1,500 horsepower, is 25% more fuel efficient than the Abrams’ AGT-1500 at speed, and is 50% more fuel efficient than the AGT-1500 at idle. It also has 43% fewer parts than the AGT-1500, which already has many fewer parts than a comparable diesel engine. It also requires much less cooling volume than a diesel. With the newer high-temperature ceramic turbine blades and the full authority digital engine controls, we can get the gas turbine down to diesel-ish fuel consumption levels. At least for older diesels, or diesels that care about performance. We still get unholy amounts of torque, easy cold starts, and the ability to run on just about any flammable liquid that you can run through the injectors. We could probably get an even smaller engine, but I try to keep these designs at least a bit grounded so that Fishbreath doesn’t complain too much.

I guess we’re moving from back to front on this design walkaround. We next come to the turret section, right in the middle. The turret is completely unmanned, but still has plenty of modular armor. We can’t get away from that, since we’re not stupid. An unarmored gun is vulnerable to mission kills from machine gun fire and shell splinters, plus just about anything heavier. It does no good to put the crew in perfect protection if the tank can’t do its job. So, we still have turret armor, we just have a lot less armored volume to worry about. We have the main gun, the coax gun and its ammo supply, the autoloader assembly, which is mostly behind and below the main gun, a bunch of data cables for targeting systems, and the electric motors needed to move everything. That’s it. So we can make our turret pretty freaking small. Most of its mass will be composite armor modules. The main gun is a 120 mm L/55 smoothbore, that wonderful Nato standard. A few changes from what you might see on your bog standard Leopard 2A6 though. First, there’s no bore evacuator, because the autoloader doesn’t care about fumes, and Cylon-OSHA isn’t a thing we have to deal with in Borgundy. Second, the chamber and recoil system are designed with future, higher-pressure rounds in mind, just in case upgrades to ammunition are needed. Third, we’ve got the necessary data interfaces built in to let us use smart rounds like the Israeli LAHAT gun-launched ATGM or the KSTAM top-attack round from South Korea. It has the usual muzzle reference sensor, muzzle cant sensor, crosswind sensor, and muzzle velocity sensor. It’s stabilized in two axes, with an active damping system to reduce barrel vibrations.

The autoloader is worth discussing here, since it’s a good part of how we’re keeping armored volume down. Rounds are stored in a vertical carousel, point-down. The carousel has a capacity of 60 rounds. The autoloader can load at a rate of about twelve rounds per minute, it can extract unfired shells, and it can eject duds (or spent case bases) out a rear hatch in the turret. This is also used for reloading the carousel. There’s no other access to the carousel without removing the turret. It’s a pain, but there’s nothing to be done about it. The autoloader scans a barcode on each round as it’s loaded in the carousel, so that the stores management system can keep track of how many rounds of each type are loaded and where they are in the carousel. Each round is stored in its own canister to minimize the chance of a catastrophic explosion. Finally, the carousel is designed to safely vent such an explosion away from the crew compartment.

The coaxial machine gun is the usual FN GPMG in 7.62×51 mm, with 4,500 ready rounds and a heavy barrel, since it’s not easily accessible without pulling armor modules. The magazine for the coax gun is accessible through a roof hatch for reloading.

Now, we come to the crew compartment. Here, we have the driver, tank commander and gunner, sitting at their stations. The driver is seated on the vehicle’s left, the gunner is seated in the middle, and the commander is seated on the vehicle’s right. All crewmen have their own hatch to allow for a rapid exit. Hatches are very thick, and are power-opening. The gunner has a single vision block for emergency uses; he does not have the option to operate turned out. The driver and commander have five vision blocks with associated thermal viewing units, and may perform their duties when turned out. The driver has a separate hull mounted thermal viewing unit, capable of 1x and 4x magnification for searching or resolving obstacles. He also has thermal-capable cameras to provide view to the sides and rear. He can cycle through these views on his internal monitors.

The commander can also view through the driver’s thermal cameras on his monitors. In addition, he controls an independent thermal sight mounted atop the turret. This sight is capable of 3x, 6x, 13x, 25x or 50x magnification, and is a third generation3 imaging system. The commander’s independent sight has an Nd:YAG laser rangefinder. The commander can match gun bearing to his sight bearing automatically with the push of a button, and he can fire the main gun (or the coax gun for that matter) himself if he wishes. The commander’s sight is, of course, fully stabilized. Slaved to the sight is a biaxially-stabilized remote weapons station, mounting a 12.7mm M2A1 HMG with 400 ready rounds.

The gunner’s sight is a copy of the commander’s; he has the same 3x/6x/13x/25x/50x magnification options, the same Nd:YAG laser rangefinder, and the same third generation thermal imager. His fire control computer is capable of automatically tracking targets. The gunner’s sight is biaxially stabilized like the main gun. The gunner’s computer can select round types and display remaining quantities of available ammunition by type. The gunner’s sight also integrates the laser guidance system for gun-launched ATGMs with semi-active laser homing guidance like the LAHAT. There’s a second, backup, sight mounted just below the main gun with fixed, 8x magnification and a stadiametric rangefinding reticle, and the gunner can also pull this view into his displays.

Hull armor is necessarily sturdy. Around the crew compartment and ammo stowage area, the sponsons contain only armor, and the thick glacis is sloped 82 degrees4 to maximize effective thickness. This is also the minimum angle for long rod penetrators to have a reasonably significant chance of ricochet, which further enhances survivability. The crew compartment has a thick bulkhead aft to divide it off from the ammo compartment. It also has a thick spall liner to minimize damage in the event of a penetration. NBC protection, plus heating and air conditioning, are provided.

In terms of electrics, the fire control system can do automatic target tracking, and can pull in information from encrypted line-of-sight, frequency-hopping, tactical radios as well as satellite tracking data if available. Information includes the vehicle’s position, positions of other friendly vehicles, information on known or suspected enemy positions, and information on terrain and obstacles. Information from ground surveillance aircraft5 can also be pulled into the network. For more traditional means of data gathering, there’s an external telephone provided on the hull to allow nearby infantry to talk directly to the crew.

Looking to the flanks, we come to the suspension. There are seven roadwheels per side. The suspension is a controllable hydropneumatic system, so the Myrmidon can lean and adjust ride height. Ground clearance is adjustable from 14 cm to 74 cm. I would love an actively damped suspension like the early-90s Williams F1 cars used to have, but the heaviest things those have been put on is a CV90, which, as we’ll soon see, is quite a bit lighter than the Myrmidon. We do have a dynamic track tension system though to keep the optimal tension on the tracks without requiring manual adjustment. The flanks are protected with heavy side skirts that contain composite armor. These can be supplemented with reactive armor cassettes, especially useful for operations in built-up areas.

Let’s talk active protection. Alas, it will drive the cost up, but all the cool kids have one on their tanks, so we should too. Plus, it saves us the trouble of trying to protect the sides and top of the tank from something like a Hellfire missile. The first part is seeing the missile coming, and the easiest way to do that is with small radars. Naturally, we locate these around the turret to provide an all-around view, like the systems on the Merkava Mark IV or the K2. This data will also be available for the crew so they can counterattack. If a launch is detected, the crew has the option to swing the turret towards the launch, presenting the thickest armor and simplifying return fire. The crew can also trigger smoke grenade dischargers to throw up a smoke screen that contains thermal obscurants. We will also integrate the Israeli Trophy hard-kill system. Trophy has successfully intercepted a number of high-end Russian anti-tank weapons, including the Kornet, the RPG-29, and the Konkurs. Field tested is excellent. We’ll be keenly interested in Rafael’s follow-on system.

Now let’s get down to the figures for dimensions and a cost guesstimate. The hull is 8.7 meters long, and is 3.657 meters wide with the skirts detached. We’re constrained in width by the need to fit on road and rail transporters. Fuel is stored in the aft section of the sponsons, on either side of the engine compartment, below the engine in an “inverted saddle” arrangement, and around the ammunition carousel. The fuel tanks are built with a heavy internal baffle structure to increase their protective value. 1,500 L of fuel are carried internally. A pair of 200 L fuel drums can be carried, one on either side of the turret, in quick-release brackets. Obviously, these shouldn’t be mounted in areas where heavy combat is expected. We reckon the Myrmidon would tip the scales at about 57 tonnes.

Let’s talk cost. How bad will this tank be? Well, we’ve kept it simple above. Hull construction is of welded steel; unlike on my Thunderbolt design workup, the Myrmidon uses no special techniques to reduce weight. Armor does have wonderful things like super-hard steel and depleted uranium, which is going to up the cost a bit. We’ve got plenty of nice electrics, but nothing that hasn’t been done before. Even the autoloader was done before in the late 80s as part of the M1 TTB project, and the LV100-5 engine was worked up for the Crusader artillery project. Uralvagonzavod claims that the Armata will come in at about $4 million, but we’ll see how that works out for them. Russia also claims they’ll order 2,300 T-14s. Again, color me skeptical. To be frank, I don’t believe a figure of $4 million dollars for the T-14, and some analysts reckon a rather higher figure, something more like $8 million. So, we can’t use a direct comparison. The K2 Black Panther is pretty similar to the Myrmidon in terms of complexity and electronics fit. The configuration is somewhat different in that the K2 is traditionally configured. On the other hand, the South Koreans aren’t ordering a lot, and we plan6 a big, Russian-sized order to equip our armored divisions. The K2 comes in at a bit over $9 million per unit. We reckon we can come in under $8 million.

1.) Well, production-ish. Like many other projects in Putin’s Russia, there’s a lot of question as to how many of these are actually going to get made. They’re not making many PAK FAs for example, and they may or may not make many T-14s. That said, the one in the Great Patriotic War Victory Parade was a pretty complete pre-production or low-rate initial production model, which is a lot farther than anyone else has gone with this.
2.) More precisely, tactical “idle”, which is actually 60% of max RPM, because throttle response on a gas turbine is terrible. The torques are outrageous though, again because turbine.
3.) i.e. it’s a dual band (MWIR and LWIR) imaging unit.
4.) From the vertical. Duh. Measuring armor angle from the vertical makes more intuitive sense to me, since a measure of 0 degrees–completely vertical–conveniently equates to a line of sight thickness multiplier of 0.
5.) e.g. JSTARS
6.) If the Russians can do it, so can we. We’re totally ordering something like 2,300 Myrmidons.

On tafl: timing

In a previous tafl post, I remarked on the lack of pre-defined notations and mathematical resources for tafl games. In this one, I will remark on a more fundamental deficit: namely, this is the first article I can find on the Internet which will attempt to define a standard for timed tafl games.

Surprising? Well, yes and no. Competitive tafl games are rarely played in person. The only live tournament (in the modern era, anyway) put on to date was run by the Fetlar Hnefatafl Panel, and as tournaments go, it was a fairly casual affair—the games were untimed, with a gentleman’s agreement not to take an undue amount of time per move. The other major tafl tournaments are run at Aage Nielsen’s site, and are correspondence play: timed, but not in the sense we’re looking for here.

The Fetlar panel suggests using a regular chess clock, but that seems unappealing to me. Broadly speaking, tafl games are defined by two stages: an opening, where the two sides jockey for position and control in the corners, and an endgame, where the king has left his throne and is pushing to one corner. The length of the opening doesn’t vary much for a particular board size, and generally speaking, features thoughtful, cautious play. Once the king leaves the throne to start the endgame, the flavor of play changes dramatically. The king’s side must make bold, sweeping moves, and the besieging side must split its attention between putting out fires and shoring up its leaky positions. What was a game of edging around the opponent and building one’s own structure becomes a head-on conflict.

The similarity to battle is striking, and suggests a method of timing that mirrors the structure of the game. Go players among the readership will be familiar with the concept of byo-yomi, a kind of overtime comprising a number of periods of a given length. If you don’t use all of one of your byo-yomi periods, you get it back in full. If you do use it, you move onto your next one. I suggest a tafl timing scheme using a small amount of main time, and a relatively generous overtime allocation. My thinking is this: the main time ought to be used for the opening, and once the endgame begins, the players should be nearly out and into overtime. I don’t have good information on how tafl games play out yet, but as a rough starting point, I would suggest a main time of about ten minutes, and three to five overtime periods of one minute each. More generally, I propose this mutation from a single main-time chess clock: for a given chess clock length in minutes (say, 60), divide by six to get the tafl main time (10, in this case). Divide that by ten to get the length of the overtime periods. Depending on the desired difficulty and clock sensitivity, set the number of overtimes to somewhere between two and six.

Not only does this mirror the calm-to-intense structure of tafl games, it also serves a practical purpose. Although tafl games and chess appear to have similar distributions of game lengths1, I get the feeling that the most competitive chess games are clustered around the average more than the most competitive tafl games2 are. An adaptive time control like byo-yomi frees endgames from the tyranny of the clock. Some games will end up playing out more quickly, and won’t feel clock pressure at all; I don’t feel that this is an indictment of the scheme. Some games will end up playing out at around the average length, where the clock is set perfectly: players will feel some time pressure, but have sufficient main time to lay their plans for the endgame. Some games, finally, will end up running longer. With an ordinary chess clock, a longer game would end with increasingly desperate time pressure. With byo-yomi time, the clock remains a driving force, but doesn’t get much worse with time.

Although I do propose this system for general use, I plan on different time controls for the AI-vs-AI tournament: no main time, and three ten-second overtime periods. Quick-play tournaments are known to be as effective as long-play tournaments in sorting AIs by relative skill level, and a large number of five-minute games is a much easier task for yours truly than a large number of thirty-minute games.

In final news, you can find v0.1.7.1b here, which fixes a few bugs in 0.1.7 and adds threefold repetition rules.

  1. The standard deviation for game length in number of moves for chess comes in at about 25, based on correspondence games listed here, some eyeballing of graphs, and some math based on histogram values, and 11×11 tafl games come in at 23, taken in aggregate, from Aage Nielsen’s tafl tournament history. Neither of these figures are set in stone, for reasons I’ll go into when I write up my findings.
  2. Aage Nielsen’s tournament history, above, has a large number of games between top players in the vicinity of 40 moves, and a nearly equal number at 70 to 90 moves.

OpenTafl v0.1.7b and a roadmap for the future

This evening, I plan to release OpenTafl v0.1.7b after testing on a Windows computer. The big feature is a new UI, which should be more readable and more usable, and which opens the door to several major features: a game clock (I plan to write about timing tafl games in a later post), external AI engines and network play (thanks to a rewrite of the way commands are passed from the AI and the UI to the game engine), and, further in the future, a more easily discoverable UI, where the player can use the arrow keys to navigate the board and move pieces.

Speaking of which, here’s the roadmap. Estimated release dates after v0.2.x are not to be trusted.

v0.1.7b+ – Now to April, as I have the time
The rest 0.1.x series of releases will be concerned with wrapping up a few missing rules: the game clock and draws by threefold repetition, including (for the latter) warnings about making a move that would create threefold repetition, and status messages for both.

Once the remaining features for version 0.1.7b are released, I plan to officially announce the OpenTafl Tafl Open, and provide a space for discussion and updates among AI authors. (We already have a kinda-sorta forum, over at http://conclave.manywords.press.)

v0.2.x – By the end of April
The 0.2.x series of releases will be concerned with implementing engine support. The end-of-April deadline leaves about seven months for AI authors to build in OpenTafl engine support for the OpenTafl Tafl Open, which should be sufficient for some fairly interesting designs.

v0.3.x – Summertime sometime
The 0.3.x series of releases will be concerned with allowing more player-to-player interaction, improving the single-player experience, and implementing extra game-analysis features. Planned features for the 0.3.x series include saving and loading games by means of OpenTafl Notation game records, AI improvements, correspondence play, and a simple in-game history viewer and out-of-game replay viewer.

v0.4.x – Fall/winter
The 0.4.x series of releases will be concerned with support for real-time network play. OpenTafl will be able to run in server mode, or connect to a multiplayer server in client mode.

Other features I may try to fit in include the ability to hypothesize moves and sequences as part of the history viewer and replay viewer, although this may prove to be more difficult than I expect.

Anyway, that’s what you can expect in the next year. In the nearer future, v0.1.7b should be available no later than tomorrow morning, but most likely tonight.