Author Archives: Fishbreath

On tafl

While I attempt to dream up suitable procurement challenges for Parvusimperator, who is much harder to challenge than I am, I have some side projects in flight. One of those is a computer implementation of tafl.

Tafl is an Old Norse board game. The name means ‘table’, and the game and its variants are also known by some others: hnefatafl (King’s Table, to my best guess), brandubh, tablut, alea evangelii, ard ri, and likely some I’m forgetting. It is mainly notable for being the best-developed asymmetric abstract strategy game of which I am aware. Common across all the varians is the central goal: one side, the king’s side, starts in the center of the board. Its goal is to get its king to escape. The other side, the besieging side, plays to prevent the king from escaping. The king escapes on edge spaces in some variants, and on corner spaces in others.

Taflmen are moved like the rook in chess, orthogonally, any number of spaces. Captures are made by surrounding opposing taflmen on two sides, though some variants require that the king be surrounded by four opposing taflmen to be captured, and others do not allow the king to take part in captures.

Some modern variants introduce innovations aimed at a more balanced game, or one less likely to stalemate: pieces in a line on a board edge can be captured by lining up your own pieces opposite them and surrounding them to the sides, or the king can escape by means of a similar formation, if he is able to move inside the surrounding formation. Other modern variants go even further from the original rules, introducing pieces which can jump to move or jump to capture, and the ‘berserker rule’: a piece which makes a capture can move repeatedly, so long as each subsequent move also makes a capture. (That one is going to be a huge pain to implement. Just saying.)

Anyway, besides its obscurity and its Viking flavor, I find two other things to like about tafl games: first, the unchartedness of the territory. Tafl is still an enthusiast community, and although it seems to be growing, research into the game is still in its infancy. It’s a chance to break some new ground in human understanding, a compelling reason to work on it.

The second reason is the probable computational complexity of tafl games. Though the rules are simpler than those of chess, it’s my suspicion that, in terms of raw possible games and average branching factor, tafl is a harder game to model than chess. Consider: concretely, taflmen move as freely as the second tier of chess pieces (the rooks and bishops), and the tafl board is bigger (attested variants range from 7×7 to 17×17 or 19×19, depending on your interpretation of the rules). Qualitatively, it feels to me like tafl is a busier game: the capture rules mean that it’s more difficult to make captures while keeping strong positions, and the escape/surround duality in objectives means that material advantage is, to a certain point, less important. Pinning a piece in place so that a piece behind it can’t deliver an attack is fundamental to chess tactics, but two taflmen in the same vicinity build upon each other, and their interchangeability means that sacrificing one taflman so that another can move into a better position requires much less care than chess tactics do.

I suppose, speaking in the most general terms, chess between evenly-matched players is a game of materiel before a game of position: gains in material advantage are easily parlayed into gains in positional advantage, because it’s easier to fix an opponent’s powerful pieces in place relative to tafl. Tafl between evenly-matched players is a game of position before materiel. It isn’t uncommon to see high-level tafl players decline to take ‘freebie captures’—when the opponent places a piece into a position where it can be captured without retaliation—because a small material gain is not worth losing a turn in the race for position elsewhere on the board.

Anyway, that’s all I have for today. As I get OpenTafl more ready for a release, I intend to go into more specifics about its variations, its strategy, and my implementation of its more curious features and work toward a reasonable AI. I’ll see you then. (Or probably before then, when I tell you which things I’ve chosen for Parvusimperator’s unseemly gauntlet-throwing.)

2015 projects and series

Now that we’re a month into the New Year, it’s time to go on record with some plans and details for 2015. Below, in no particular order, are the major non-writing things I and Many Words collaborators and non-posting friends will be working on this year.

The Nivkh-Quechua cognate hunt
A friend of mine has been looking for and finding a surprising number of cognates between Nivkh, a Siberian language, and Quechua, a South American language. Since his dictionary source material for Nivkh is primarily in Russian, I’m lending him my Russian experience to help out.

OpenTafl
Tafl, the Old Norse board game, has long been an object of fascination to me. It’s also a very poorly understood game. One of my projects this year is to finish a computer representation of several variants of the game, so that I and a friend of mine can investigate it more deeply than has been done to date. Also because it’s cool and there isn’t a good way to play with friends and I need to fix that.

Skypirates theme
Parvusimperator and I enjoy our shared Skypirates universe a lot, but we’d like to do some more world design in places we haven’t looked at much. We’ll have some details for you on China, Imperial Japan, and Nazi Germany, for sure, since Parvusimperator is doing most of the work there, along with Corregidor (the Tortuga of the Far East). I’ll probably be tackling the Australian Colonies, the American West Coast nation of Pacifica, and Tortuga (the Corregidor of the West).

The Casino Job
Parvusimperator is also planning on actually putting out a story in the Skypirates universe, featuring his own crew and his own zep. I won’t spoil anything besides the title.

An unspecified app project
Since my friend and I are slow workers, I’m not going to say anything about this until it’s nearly ready for prime time.

Projekt Archangel
I’m planning on modernizing a Mosin-Nagant rifle (don’t worry, collectors, there are tens of millions of them, and I have one to keep original) toward the end of this year. Pictures and build details when they happen.

Picking up the gauntlet
I guess I have to answer the challenges Parvusimperator threw down. Let no man say I am a poltroon.

Throwing down the gauntlet
The other half of the above.

Procurement Games 2014: How to Win, FREMMs, and Influence People

In fighter procurement, there’s a concept known as the high-low mix: buy a small number of expensive fighters and a large number of less expensive fighter. The theory goes that it’s bad to be outnumbered and bad to be out-gadgeted, so mix the two together and mitigate the disadvantages of both1.

There’s a similar paradigm in naval procurement, although the reasoning is different. Big, expensive surface combatants—your carriers, your Kirovs, your Burkes—are well and dandy, and indeed, are usually more capable than the equivalent tonnage of smaller things. They have an enormous and obvious drawback, though: physically, they can only be in one place at a time. Luchtburg has its ‘high’ platforms in its aircraft carriers2, and it also has its ‘super-low’ local naval force3. What has been missing, up to this article, is a solid, dependable, light- to middleweight warship: an Oliver Hazard Perry for the modern age.

I’ve rather given up the game in the title, because, for a nation in the Americas, there is only one choice that makes any sense for worldwide sea lane influence: the FREMM, a French-Italian collaboration. Specifically, I’m talking about the Italian anti-submarine version. Over the French version, it has 900 tons, extra range and speed, room for a second helicopter, extra VLS tubes4, anti-submarine cruise missiles, a towed array, and a better radar. As I see it, a frigate5 has three major roles.

First, and most traditional, is the anti-submarine role. The Italian ASW FREMM is an extremely capable ship in this regard. Perhaps its most critical edge over other, similar options is the ability to carry two medium-lift helicopters. With their mobility, sensors, and immunity to counterattack, helicopters are extraordinarily important ASW assets, to the point where I dismiss out of hand any ASW ship without room for a brace of helos. Also important is a good towed sonar, and FREMM doesn’t disappoint. It has an advanced towed array from Thales, which has such exciting features as a separated transmitter and receiver array for working around layers, and low-frequency operational modes for longer active detection ranges.

Second, a ship operating by itself must be able to defend itself against air and cruise missile threats. The Italian version uses the Selex EMPAR radar, one of the class-toppers in the realm of passive electronically-scanned arrays for naval vessels, and the Luchtbourgish version carries thirty-two tubes6. As with all FREMMs, it supports Aster 15 and Aster 30 missiles. As an added bonus, the latter has a dedicated anti-ballistic variant in testing, and already has minor anti-ballistic capability. Luchtburg’s FREMMs will come with standalone SEARAM launchers mounted on the foredeck and the hangar roof.

Third, a frigate must be able to attack other things on the surface, be they other seagoing vessels or land targets. The VLS, with its sixteen SYLVER A70 cells, can support cruise missiles, and the FREMM has eight cruise missile launchers amidships (the Italian version can launch anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine missiles, and land-attack missiles from the midships launchers). Further, for smaller targets, our FREMM variant mounts a pair of OTO-Melara rapid-firing 76mm guns. OTO-Melara produces a bunch of interesting ammunition for its rapid-firing guns, including an anti-ship round with IR terminal guidance, and a GPS/INS-guided land-attack munition.

1. I think. I’m not actually an expert.
2. And probably Arleigh Burkes or indigenous large missile destroyers, but I haven’t decided yet.
3. I’ll tell you later.
4. As equipped, it only has sixteen, but the Italians reserved room for another sixteen.
5. I’ll be using the European term for the FREMM, although calling a 6900-ton ship a frigate is patently absurd.
6. I would like more, but I don’t think it’s plausible to pack them in.

Comment on our procurement posts in the Procurement Games comment thread.

Fishbreath Plays: Starsector, Part II

I talked some about logistics in my last post about Starsector. Now, I’d like to touch on what I think is its best feature: its combat engine.

This video depicts a quick 1v2 battle I set up in the game’s combat simulator. HSS Daring, my cruiser from my previous Starsector post, faces off against a Venture-type cruiser and a Buffalo destroyer.

Have a watch, preferably on Youtube proper in high definition, and feast your eyes and ears upon the visuals and sounds. It’s in the running for the best-looking two-dimensional game of all time, I would say.

Okay. There is one major, overriding concern in Starsector combat, and that is ‘flux’. Flux is the generic resource which runs just about everything. Firing weapons takes it, and crucially, having your shields up and taking damage to your shields increases flux. You can choose to vent flux, which shuts down your shields and weapon systems, but quickly drains your flux. If you wait too long and your flux bar overflows, your ship overloads. (It happens to the enemy cruiser toward the end of the video above.) When overloading, it drains flux more slowly than normal, and much more slowly than venting, while sitll rendering you vulnerable and helpless to respond. Once you get through the shields, there’s armor (represented by yellow damage numbers in the video) and hull (orange ones).

Besides some caveats about beam weapons impacts and weapons fire generating ‘soft flux’, which goes away when the shields are up, and other weapons impacts generating ‘hard flux’, which only drops when the shields are down, that’s all there is to it, and it’s a brilliant piece of game design. It solves a few problems all at once. First, it allows for very easy tuning of relative ship performance. High-tech destroyer underperforming? Give it a better shield damage-to-flux ratio. Old-fashioned heavy cruiser too easy to pack with high-cost modern weapons? Give it a lower flux dissipation rate, and it’ll be able to unload a few powerful volleys to start a fight, but will have to fall back to recover afterward. Battleship failing to absorb damage like it should? Give it more flux capacity.

Beyond that, it also forces the player to think about a ship’s weaknesses in fitting, and to think on his feet when the fight is on. Absorbing damage from a lot of enemies requires most of an ordinary ship’s flux capacity, and captains have to be able to choose their moments well to put an enemy ship out of commission in such circumstances as that.

Anyway, I have one more video for you, which shows the command system and a much larger battle. In the main, ships are autonomous vessels controlled by NPC captains. (Eventually, this will be even more true: NPC captains will be characters, requiring pay, who have personality traits. Worried about your fancy carrier getting too close to the fighting? Put a captain with a lot of caution in command. Want your attack cruiser to get stuck in more? Look for an aggressive guy.) You put orders markers down on the map, and the number of orders you can give per battle is limited. (Spend a command point, and you can give orders for free as long as the command interface is open.) You have to decide which tasks are important enough to request your subordinates carry out specifically, and rely on them not to get in too deep on their own. So far, I’ve found this system to be more than sufficient. Again, it pushes the player into tradeoffs—is it more important to me to have a frigate protect my flagship against incoming fighters, or to have a frigate run down an enemy freighter at the far end of the field of battle? It also frees the player to get on with the business of actually fighting. There’s no benefit, and indeed there is active harm in, attempting to micromanage, so you’re best off setting up your orders, charging into the fray yourself, and checking on the state of things every now and then.

The Procurement Games 2014: Luchtburg’s Strategic Aims and Armed Forces Organization

…and their impact on its procurement policies.

Security and support for overseas trade
Luchtburg is a regional power, but a world economy. Its armed forces must be able to secure sea lanes worldwide, and more broadly, have the capability to position air and ground forces around the world on short notice, whether to provide security assistance for its less-stable trade partners, or to participate in coalition actions where such participation is merited. Luchtbourgish procurement therefore focuses on air and ground platforms with good strategic mobility, and on naval units with strong multirole and independent operation capabilities.

Counterweight to Brazil and other large South American powers
As a small, Central American nation, Luchtburg remains leery of Brazil and its peers (as well as the US, but Luchtburg can less readily be a counterweight to US influence in Central America). Luchtburg therefore considers it important to possess conventional ground and air forces roughly on par with Brazil’s, in both size and technology. This objective, in combination with Luchtburg’s other objectives, places strict constraints on ground forces procurement, a topic to come later. (It also recommends Gripen even more heavily, given that it’s cheap enough to buy a lot of, and definitely on par with Brazil’s Gripens.)

Keep its own house in order
Central and South America mean ‘drug trade’. Luchtburg is, with its mountainous and heavily-jungled interior, a major center for illegal drug production and shipment, and requires platforms capable of combating the cartels. Vehicles must be sufficiently lightweight and agile to perform well in the jungle, and helicopter-borne light infantry and long-loitering, low and slow close air support are also necessities. Also handy are HMMWV-alikes, 4×4 armored trucks with room for infantry in back for patrolling remote jungle roads between tiny villages perched atop mountain cliffs.

Finally, a few notes on Luchtbourgish armed forces organization. After acquiring navalized Gripens and aircraft carriers, the general staff decided that an independent air force was superfluous: the Luchtbourgish Naval Air Service operates Sea Gripens from land bases and carriers to fulfill land-based air defense sortie requirements, while the Luchtbourgish Army operates close air support aircraft as necessary. This neatly solves the ‘fighter mafia’ issue, where CAS, despite its obvious importance, particularly in asymmetric conflicts like the ones Luchtburg is likely to find itself involved in, is played down by an air force which sees it as unglamorous. The Naval Air Service is free to pursue aircraft and weapon systems which support its role as the 10,000-feet-and-up air force, while the Army has the budget and the political clout to keep dedicated air-to-ground platforms in service.

Luchtburg’s particular situation does have some thought behind it. Like any real place, its circumstances force it to look at some platforms which aren’t top-of-the-line, but do fit its requirements better. Gripen was one such platform. When I get to choosing ground vehicles, there will be some others. Up next, though, the hunt for a hunter for Red October. By which I mean a frigate, not submarines.

Comment on our procurement posts in the Procurement Games comment thread.

Fishbreath Plays: Starsector, Part I

Starsector, once known as Starfarer, is a 2D top-down space combat sandbox game.

After a trading-based start to the game, I’ve traded in my freighters and moved up in the world, with a moderately large carrier, some destroyers, and a cruiser, and I’ve found that there is money to be made in pirate hunting, so long as you hunt the right kind of pirate. Let’s take a quick look at my fleet, and at some of the things I have to consider before and between combat.

HSS Daring is my new cruiser, purchased and fit with help from the Hegemony military. (I’ve been doing a lot of my trading and pirate hunting in Hegemony territory, which improves my standing with them. Eventually, factions that like you open up their internal markets to you.) It’s the core of the fleet now—surivable enough to shrug off multiple smaller ships, punchy enough to plaster other things its size. ISS Bounty II is my carrier, with a pair of flight decks. I think it’s actually the fastest non-fighter ship I can deploy. HSS Aquilo II and HSS Juturna III are my destroyers. Aquilo is fit to hunt bigger ships: it has a large-size hardpoint for a forward-firing energy weapon and two smaller hardpoints flanking, along with some missile racks. Juturna is primarily made to get in close, overload a frigate or destroyer’s shields, and tear it up before it can recover. ISS Helle was my starting ship, an exceedingly tough combat freighter frigate. It didn’t have shields until recently, but now it does.

The major limiter on using ships in combat is combat readiness, which represents how well-maintained a vessel is. It doesn’t play a role on the overworld map, the assumption being that simple travel doesn’t put too much stress on the duct tape and bailing wire school of starship engineering, but if you get into combat, low combat readiness will see your ships performing poorly or outright falling apart. You lose combat readiness by deploying ships in combat, and also by taking hull damage (or by supply and logistical failings, but that’s another story), and you get it back by an expenditure of supplies. The major expense in keeping a combat fleet active is spending on supplies to restore combat readiness, and so the question for a bounty-chasing mercenary such as myself ends up being, how little can I deploy without losing?

For the moment, the answer almost always includes Bounty II. It’s fast enough to catch most destroyers. So are the fighters, which usually make an appearance too. (Fighters without a carrier on the field are one and done. With a carrier in combat, they can dip into a replacement pool. With no carrier in the fleet, either in the combat or in reserve, if a fighter wing runs out of ships, it’s gone for good.) Next up are Juturna and Helle, if I need more punch. Daring comes next, as it’s not significantly more expensive than Aquilo to deploy, and vastly more capable, and Aquilo comes in last. (Although I usually bump Daring up in the order, because it’s just so much fun to fly.) For when I need it, I have a light carrier and fighter wing mothballed, and they add a good bit of missile-based punch to the fleet.

It’s proven to be a really neat logistical challenge—how long can I stay out and fight, how much can I commit to this combat when I’m far from a supply source, should I buy that freighter with a flight deck to add to my far-from-supply longevity and provide a cheap launch platform for small engagements (that one’s a yes)? Updates come infrequently, but so far, Starsector has never seen a change that isn’t well-thought out and engaging, and I haven’t even begun to gush about how trading is an improvement on the genre norm. I was a little leery about recommending it to people on the fence before, but nowadays, there’s a sandbox game there, and it’s probably worth the $15 as it is now, to say nothing of how it’s going to end up.

The Procurement Games 2014: A Fishy Fighter for All Occasions

Luchtburg, a reasonably wealthy country with limited strategic interests in its immediate vicinity1, requires a robust array of aerial equipment. The lynchpin of any air force is its fighter type, and Luchtburg has a few specific constraints.

First, as a Central American power with trade interests primarily in Europe and Asia, it operates aircraft carriers2. As such, any fighter it purchases must either be a naval fighter already, or be available in a navalized variant.

Second, it must be inexpensive to procure and operate. Luchtburg is reasonably wealthy, but is also in the midst of a 20-year, $200 billion-ish procurement plan, and savings on the operating costs of acquired hardware can be put into personnel or further hardware purchases.

Third, it must be a swing-role aircraft, capable of carrying out tasks which fit multiple roles in the space of a single mission.

Fourth, in terms of weapons carried, it must not be tied inextricably to a single bloc3. Luchtburg does not want to be like Iran in any way at all, but especially does not want to be like Iran by having fighters which require American arms after falling out of favor with America.

Fifth, it must be capable of buddy refueling. Carriers in Luchtburg’s inventory aren’t universally large enough to operate light tankers, and so fighters must be able to top off fighters.

Other capabilities and characteristics Luchtburg would like include proven combat performance, short and unimproved airfield performance, and fancy network and datalink capability, but these are points in favor more than their absences are disqualifying factors. Supercruise and supermaneuverability are nice to have, too.

There are five good candidates: Flankers and navalized Flanker variants from Russia, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet out of the good old US of A, the F-35A and C, also of the USA, France’s prized Rafale4, and the Gripen NG/E/F of Sweden.

The easiest candidate to discard is, I’m afraid, the F-35. The reasons are myriad: it’s extremely expensive, it’s unproven in combat, and its armaments load is very American. Further, there are tradeoffs Luchtburg doesn’t like. The naval variant doesn’t feature an internal gun, although it does feature larger wings and correspondingly improved low-speed performance, and the type’s focus on stealth yields compromises in weapons load which Luchtburg finds unacceptable. As far as the procurement mavens know, it’s neither supercruise-capable nor supermaneuverable.

After discarding the F-35, the going gets harder. Next up on the chopping block is the entry from Sukhoi. Navalized Su-35s hit a lot of the capabilities Luchtburg wants, but also feature a lot of the downsides. Russian aircraft are notoriously expensive to operate, hard on fuel and hard on parts, as well. Russian avionics, though much improved from those dark days of the Cold War, still lag somewhat behind their Western counterparts, especially in aerial radars. Although Flankers mount Russian weapons almost exclusively, Russia is willing to sell arms to just about anybody, so that factors less into the decision.

Next to be crossed off the list is the Super Hornet. Here, it starts to get very hard. The biggest point against the Super Hornet is its absolute dependence on American support. Luchtburg hopes its policy goals never preclude its purchase of AMRAAMs, but it’s impossible to say that will certainly be the case. In every other category, the Super Hornet is average or above average, but in the absence of a native air to air arms industry, Luchtburg can’t go with the F/A-18E.

If Luchtburg were to go with a two-fighter procurement plan, the Rafale would be its heavy fighter. Agile, proven, carrier-capable, and able to haul quite a lot off of even Charles de Gaulle-sized decks, it can also mount weapons from both Europe and America, and has cockpit and pilot workload features Luchtburg also finds intriguing. Unfortunately, Dassault has no experience successfully exporting the Rafale, and the unit cost, in the $100 million range, is too high for Luchtburg to call it the one fighter for every occasion.

That leaves us with the victor, the JAS-39E/F Gripen. Now purchased by Brazil, the next-generation Gripen is one launch customer away from a naval variant, and Luchtburg is more than happy to continue operating its obsolescent air force until such time as Saab begins to roll out the Sea Gripen. A Sea Gripen variant would no doubt improve on the Gripen’s already-impressive short-field performance, and given that it’s not all that much bigger than an A-4 Skyhawk, it would be a suitable fighter even for miniature carriers. In initial procurement cost, it’s the second-cheapest behind the Super Hornet, and far and away the least expensive to operate5. It fits the swing-role descriptor, capable of carrying a wide variety of munitions at once. Variants can already mount American and European equipment, and Saab’s willingness to open the aircraft’s avionics source code to partners puts the armaments possibilities at essentially limitless, especially for a high-tech economy like Luchtburg’s. Gripens use a probe and drogue refueling system, and therefore have the technical ability to buddy tank.

It’s supercruise-capable, designed to operate from highways and unimproved airstrips, and features a datalink equaled in current service only by the F-22’s datalink. Perhaps most important of all, Saab has, in the past, been willing to offer technology transfers and even co-production, which would serve to kickstart Luchtburg’s own native air industry. Finally, Saab is a known quantity in the export market, trustworthy and reliable.

In the end, the Gripen is (though it pains me to say) not the most combat-capable aircraft on my list. For Luchtburg’s purposes, it is, however, the best fit for the requirements, militarily, politically, and economically.

1. That sounds like a post for sometime down the line: what are its specific aims? I’ll put it on the stack.
2. Luchtburg’s navy is also a post I need to write, but probably after the one about strategic aims.
3. The US, Europe, and Russia, for the purposes of this discussion.
4. Yet another piece of military hardware whose name means ‘squall’.
5. It is a small, single-engined fighter in a pack of large, twin-engined fighters, after all.

Comment on our procurement posts in the Procurement Games comment thread.

A Question of Procurement: A Fishy Introduction

As parvusimperator has his Borgundy, so I do I too have my own little fake country for questions of procurement and geopolitics. Luchtburg, named after an old NationStates country named after a setting for a story I have yet to write, is a Central American Prussian successor state1.

Geographically, it’s a small country north of the Panamanian isthmus, about two hundred fifty kilometers from end to end, with both Atlantic and Pacific coastlines. The terrain is mountainous and heavily jungled, and population is centered on the coastlines. Transport links between the coastlines are limited; with Panama being a near neighbor, the difficulty of improving rail links over the mountains hasn’t been all that important since the canal opened. Several highways cross the mountains.

Economically, Luchtburg is high-tech services and finances and as such quite wealthy. Local heavy industry is limited to shipbuilding, so outside of naval buys and small arms, Luchtburg is a major defense importer.

Strategically, Luchtburg has two main geopolitical concerns. First, it desires to counterbalance regional powers such as Brazil2. In pursuit of this goal, it needs conventional armed forces capabilities superior to theirs. Second, it desires to participate in stability maintenance operations in regions where it has trading partners, primarily Europe and Asia, and as such it needs a robust amphibious, naval, and naval air capability. Although it is wealthy, it isn’t a large enough economy to spend willy-nilly, so ideally, defense systems it acquires should be able to be used in pursuit of more than one strategic aim.

That’s about all you need to know for now. The first which-is-it-gonna-be article from me will be on fighter aircraft.

1. We never claimed this game was at all plausible.
2. Brazil! *fistshake*

Comment on our procurement posts in the Procurement Games comment thread.