To paraphrase a song lyric, Connect two three facts…

FACT: We know that Glock won the biggest law enforcement pistol contract with the FBI. Many had thought the SiG P320 was a shoo-in. Glock thought the contract was worth some effort, and the FBI went with Glock.

FACT: SiG has just disbanded its shooting team. It’s pretty complete; as of Friday, October 7, 2016, websites and facebook pages are gone. We know this team was created to market the P320. Shooting teams get axed for cost reasons. Not justifying the ROI, that sort of thing.

FACT: The Modular Handgun System Competition entrants have been informed of who’s in and who isn’t. We know this because of S&W’s investor communications indicating their elimination. So as of the end of September 2016, S&W knows. Which means SiG and Glock and the rest also know.

Now. Connect these facts. No luck with the FBI. And no more shooting team. Now, is this the the course of action you would take if you were one of the three downselects? Of course not. In both of these cases, the prize is the knock-on effects. It’s not just the FBI contract that Glock won. There’s a whole bunch of alphabet soup agencies at the federal level that are allowed to simply “Take what the FBI’s got” and skip their own evaluation. Plus a bunch of other police departments will no doubt to the same. The FBI is a big-name agency. Plus, a lot of smaller agencies/departments don’t have the budget or knowledge to do their own big evaluation. If the FBI did a massive one, and Glock came out on top, then it’s likely pretty good. Certainly good enough. Plus many citizens who will no doubt pony up dollars.

The Modular Handgun System (for it’s stupid, stupid name and high likelihood of being a boondoggle) holds promise of similar secondary contracts from smaller nations, plus more agencies, civilian sales, and “mindshare”. After winning the 1985 contract, the M9 was in the hands of action heroes for the next 10 years. And again, got a ton of sales.

So the smart money says SiG is out too. And with two contracts down, why spend the money on the shooting team? So that’s my prediction. We’ll soon hear that they didn’t make the cut.